Monday, November 7, 2011

Petrol Price - Beyond The Rhetoric 1

In the part 1 of the series, I will be looking at price trends during the 17-month period of de-regulation and the price components.
So, there is yet another hike in the price of petrol whiles the price of the other commonly used fuel, diesel remains un-changed.  This time, it is a 1.8 rupee per litre hike, leaving the price of petrol in Chennai to be 72.73 rupees a litre.  Petrol prices were de-regulated in June 2010 in India and since then the prices on an average have risen 51.74%.  The average price of petrol in India on the 25th June was 47.93 rupees per litre and on the day the petrol price was de-regulated, there was a 3.5 rupees per litre rise.  This is a massive rise in 17 months, given the fact that India has a largely middle and lower middle class population.  During this 17 month period, the price of diesel has increased 8.37%.
Crude Oil Price
During the same period, the price of crude oil increased by 42.75%.  The composition of Indian Crude Oil basket represents average of Oman and Dubai for sour grades and Brent (dated) for sweet grade in the ratio of 67.6:32.4.  The following table traces the historical price of the Indian crude basket and the corresponding retail price variations in the 17 month period since de-regulation.
Period
$/barrel
Date of revision
Rupees/litre**
November 2011*

November 04, 2011
72.73
October 2011
106.11


September 2011
108.79
September 16, 2011
70.82
August 2011
106.94


July 2011
112.37
July 01, 2011
67.5
June 2011
109.85


May 2011
110.65
May 15, 2011
67.22
April 2011
118.46


March 2011
110.71
March 02, 2011
61.93
February 2011
101.62


January 2011
93.87


December 2010
89.77
December 16, 2010
60.65
November 2010
84.26
November 09, 2010
57.44
November 02, 2010
57.09
October 2010
81.11


September 2010
76.09
September 21, 2010
56.31
September 08, 2010
56.02
August 2010
75.13


July 2010
73.54


June 2010
74.33
June 26, 2010
55.92
May 2010
76.16


April 2010
84.08
April 01, 2010
52.13
*Average price not available for the period
** Chennai price
The striking feature since the petrol prices were de-regulated is that the prices have not faithfully followed the crude oil prices.  There has not been a single instance of the retail prices having been reduced, while the crude prices have fluctuated lower a few times.  The latest rise has been attributed to the declining Indian rupee against the US dollar.
Petrol Price Components
So, what constitutes the price of petrol in India?  There are a multitude of cost components that is involved in determining the retail price of petrol.
The price of the Indian Crude Oil basket on 2nd November 2001 as per the Petroleum ministry website is $108.4 per barrel.  Assuming an exchange rate of 49.25, this amounts to 33.57 rupees per litre.  The following table shows the various cost components and the final retail price in Chennai.
Who earns?
Component
How much?

OMC
Base price
*

Central government
Crude oil customs duty
50 rupees/MT as NCCD + 2500 rupees/MT as cess: 0.73 rupees/litre app.
Fixed
Petrol basic customs duty
2.5%
Basic cenvat duty
6.35 rupees/litre
Special additional excise duty
6 rupees/litre
Additional excise duty
2 rupees/litre
Education cess
0.43 rupees/litre
State government
VAT/Sales tax
27% (Tamil Nadu)
Variable
OMC + Dealer
Transportation cost
**

Dealer
Dealer commission
1.499 rupees/litre
Fixed
* Latest base price not available
** Transportation cost is approximate
On an average, the base price of the petrol is less than 50% of the final retail price.  Central and state government taxes constitute a major part.  Central government earns a fixed 14.78 rupees per liter in addition to the customs duty.  It is to be noted that the state tax is a percentage of the base price.  So, the next time there is a price rise, know that the state and the central government’s revenue from petrol sales increase as a percentage of the taxes.  While the Oil Marketing Companies, which are essentially government enterprises, whine about losing money on petrol, it is the government that is gaining by increased revenue at the expense of common man.
- Vijay
Sources:
PPAC (Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell) – www.ppac.org.in
Indian Oil Corporation – www.iocl.com